NFL Week 14 Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Wes Reynolds:
Here are my NFL Week 14 best bets:Las Vegas Raiders (+7; 46) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The 2-10 Raiders are on an eight-game losing streak. However, they have shown recent improvement offensively since Scott Turner took over for a fired Luke Getsy as offensive coordinator. Las Vegas outgained both Denver and Kansas City (by 105 yards) the last two weeks, and the offense was better last week with Aidan O’Connell at the helm.This offensive improvement should continue against a Tampa defense that has allowed the sixth-highest passer rating to opposing QBs this season.
For Tampa, Baker Mayfield did have to leave last week’s fortunate OT win at Carolina briefly with an ankle injury, and RB Bucky Irving, by far the Bucs most dynamic running back, suffered a hip injury and is questionable.
While the Bucs should have some potential explosive plays down the field, Mayfield only has a 69.7 passer rating under pressure, and the Raiders lead the NFL in pass rush win rate.
Mayfield is also just 17-28-1 ATS as a favorite.
NFL Week 14 Best Bet: Las Vegas Raiders +7 (-115)
Cleveland Browns (+7; 43.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
The market is clearly in love with the Steelers with Pittsburgh generating its highest offensive output of the season last week with 520 yards of total offense in a 44-38 victory at Cincinnati.Now Pittsburgh has a 1.5-game lead in the AFC North with just five games to play and has a win in hand over its only pursuer in the Baltimore Ravens.
Nevertheless, this could be a temporary sell spot on the Steelers, as this has historically been a bad spot for Mike Tomlin. Tomlin is 29-49-1 ATS when favored by 3 points or more and off a victory.
Meanwhile, those of us on Cleveland last week got the full Jameis Winston experience in arguably one of the bad beats of the season. Winston threw for 497 yards and four touchdown passes, but he also threw two pick-sixes and another INT on 1st and goal from the 2 as the Browns were going for the late cover.
Cleveland had 552 yards of total offense and outgained Denver by over 150 yards and still found a way to lose and not cover.
Nevertheless, we go back to Jameis here as he is 21-11 ATS as an underdog of 3 points or more.
Pittsburgh has clearly been better than the market anticipated, but they have also been somewhat lucky. Keep in mind, they were laying -3.5 on the road in Cleveland just two weeks ago, and some shops still have -6.5 here in the revenge spot? This is low-hanging fruit for the Steelers that is way too tempting for the betting public.
NFL Week 14 Best Bet: Cleveland Browns +7 (-120)
Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams (+3.5; 49.5)
Last week, the Bills became the first team to clinch a division title since the 2009 Indianapolis Colts with 5 + games left in the regular season with a 35-10 win over a walking-wounded 49ers club.Now the Bills are priced at the top of the market here and have to go across the country to play the Rams after clinching the AFC East on Sunday Night Football over San Francisco and beating their arch nemesis Kansas City before its bye week.
The travel spot is not easy, and it is even more difficult to face a Rams team essentially playing for its season every week in a crowded NFC West.
Schematically speaking, this should be a good matchup for the Rams offense, considering the Bills play a ton of zone and Matthew Stafford can shred it with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Since Kupp and Nacua returned to the lineup in Week 8, Stafford ranks in the Top 10 for both adjusted EPA/play and success rate.
Furthermore, the Rams are as healthy as they have been on the offensive line, with Steve Avila and Jonah Jackson having returned from the IR a couple of weeks ago.
It has actually been the Rams defense carrying the day of late as they rank Top 4 in both EPA/play and success rate over the last six weeks.
The early number was 4.5 and has dropped to 3.5 but worth taking as this looks to be one of the top “pros vs. joes” games on Sunday’s card.
NFL Week 14 Best Bet: Buffalo Bills +3.5
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-4; 43)
The Kansas City Chiefs keep finding ways to win as they did last Friday, escaping with a 19-17 victory over the Raiders. Kansas City is 0-6 ATS in their last six games but five of those spreads were a touchdown or more. This week’s -4 number could be more manageable.Speaking of getting lucky in a victory, the Chargers did just that last week in Atlanta. Los Angeles only had two first downs in the second half and were outgained 350-187 by the Falcons last week, but Kirk Cousins gave them the game with four interceptions, including two in the fourth quarter.
Chargers receiver Ladd McConkey caught 9 passes for 117 yards, and the rest of the team caught 8 for 33. McConkey also left last week’s game with knee and shoulder injuries.
The Chargers offense is sputtering without JK Dobbins in the backfield and their receivers will struggle to get separation against the KC secondary.
Jim Harbaugh and Jesse Minter’s defense is zone-heavy and does struggle defending the power running game, and Isiah Pacheco is back for his second game since returning from injury and likely will get a heavier workload.
Keep in mind, Kansas City laid -7 at Los Angeles in Week 4 on won by exactly 7. Now they lay -4 at Arrowhead. Lay the discounted price here.
NFL Week 14 Best Bet: Kansas City Chiefs -4
BEST OF THE REST
Giants +5.5 vs. Saints
Seahawks/Cardinals UN 44.5
